South Africa’s wine industry in 2026: fewer vines, falling exports and tariff whiplash

Ask a Cape grower what 2025–2026 felt like and you’ll hear the same three things: the vineyard keeps getting smaller, bulk wine is hard to sell, and nobody could tell you from one month to the next what it would cost to land a case in the United States. Here is what the official and industry figures actually show, and what they mean for planning on a wine farm.

A smaller vineyard

SAWIS put the 2025 wine grape area at 86 544 hectares, the figure South Africa Wine was still quoting in December 2025 with its first estimate of the 2026 crop. South Africa Wine notes that older vineyards are being replaced with newer plantings, so part of the change is renewal rather than pure loss.

The OIV, which counts all vineyards (wine, table and drying grapes together), tells the same story over a longer period. South Africa’s total vineyard area went from 119 000 ha in 2020 to an estimated 109 000 ha in 2025. The OIV links the decline partly to the lasting impact of the 2015–2017 drought, and notes that in 2025 the area was broadly stable for the first time since 2020, down only 0.1%.

Worldwide, the vineyard shrank for the sixth year in a row in 2025 (−0.8%, to 7.0 million ha), driven by uprooting in major producing countries — OIV, State of the World Wine Sector in 2025.

Two better harvests

Fewer hectares haven’t meant smaller crops. SAWIS estimated the 2025 harvest at 1.244 million tonnes, and the OIV put 2025 wine production at 10.2 million hectolitres, 16.2% up on 2024 and 2.8% above the five-year average, after two small vintages. For 2026, South Africa Wine estimated 1.370 million tonnes, a moderate recovery on 2025.

The 2026 season wasn’t easy. Vinpro’s viticulturists called it a “pendulum season”: February rain raised disease pressure and March heat spikes compressed ripening. That is the kind of year in which your spray timing and pick dates per block matter more than the regional average.

Exports: value held, bulk collapsed

According to the OIV, South African wine exports fell to 3.2 million hectolitres in 2025 (−12.2%) and to EUR 0.6 billion in value (−7.4%). The split matters:

• Bulk wine (containers over 10 litres) fell 25.7% in volume, and that alone drove the overall decline.
• Bottled wine grew 9.9% in volume and 2.6% in value.
• The UK remained the largest market by volume and value, at 0.7 million hectolitres, though down 11.7%.
• Shipments to the US fell 27.5% in volume and 40.7% in value.

Industry figures reported in January 2026 put 2025 export earnings at R9.8 billion and volume 13.8% lower, with packaged exports to the rest of Africa up 14% — Kenya, Zambia and Uganda all grew. WoSA’s CEO, Siobhan Thompson, summed it up as “prioritising value over volume”: the farms that bottle, brand and sell into specific markets have held up better than those that depend on the bulk price.

The US tariff whiplash

The US takes only a small share of South African wine — roughly 5% of export volume and 7% of value, according to industry figures reported in January 2026 — but for some producers it is their main export market. In August 2025 the US “reciprocal” tariff on South African goods rose to 30%. On 20 February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the President to impose tariffs — the legal basis of those reciprocal tariffs. A temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 was announced in its place, limited to 150 days.

What applies to a shipment today depends on decisions taken since then, and any refund of duties already paid sits first with the US importer, not with you. Before you quote a price to a US buyer, check the current rate with your importer or freight agent rather than relying on a news report.

Oversupply and a smaller home market

The pressure isn’t only abroad. The OIV estimates world wine consumption at 208 million hectolitres in 2025 (−2.7%), with nine of the ten largest markets drinking less. South Africa is still Africa’s largest wine market, but local consumption fell 7.7% to an estimated 4.0 million hectolitres in 2025. South Africa Wine’s CEO, Rico Basson, named global oversupply and pricing pressure as the main challenge after the 2026 harvest.

Costs that come through SAWIS are also rising: from 1 January 2026 the research, development and information levy is R70.63 per ton of grapes, and the export levy on certified packaged wine is 21.05 cents per litre, both stepping up every year to 2029 under Notice 3714 of 2025.

What this means on the farm

• Know your cost per block, not per farm. When the bulk price is under pressure, a block that only covers its costs in a good year is the one to reconsider — replant, change cultivar or pull it out.
• Know your stock. With bulk demand down, unsold wine sits longer in tank; volumes, ages and analyses per lot tell you what you can still offer and what needs to move.
• Keep records a buyer can audit. If an importer or retailer asks where a wine came from and what was applied to the vineyard, the answer should take minutes, not days.
• Separate the markets. A US tariff, a UK supermarket tender and a cellar-door price are different businesses with different margins; plan them separately.
• Watch disease pressure per block in wet, hot seasons like 2026, when one missed spray window can cost a block’s quality.

None of these levers needs a new system so much as reliable numbers. GrapeFlow keeps blocks, spray records, harvest intake, lots, tanks and bottled stock in one place, so the questions above — what did this block yield, what is still in tank, what was sprayed — have an answer in seconds. It doesn’t forecast prices or file anything for you.